Options Hotline

OPTIONS HOTLINE MIDWEEK OUTLOOK

Steve Sarnoff — Wed, 18 Nov 2009 14:29:34 +0000

The US dollar is still down and stocks and commodities still up. But is time running out on the rally? In my opinion, it is. Choppy price action, such as we’ve seen over the past couple sessions, is indicative of a turning period in the market. Momentum is starting to flag and negative technical divergences are developing. I’m looking for coming strength in the dollar to spark more significant corrections in stocks and commodities.

Open Option Positions Review

The CSX November $40 put (“CSXWH” recommended 10-04-09, triggered at $200, subsequent high at $215 on 10-05-09, subsequent low at $2 on 11-10-09) closed at a nominal value. Shares closed at $50.00, pushing into resistance. Support is now at: $47-$48, $42-$45, $39.50-$40.67, $37.25, and $32.39-$35.36. Resistance is now at $50-$52. If shares hold up through Friday’s expiration, any remaining positions in this one will go out worthless.

The Caterpillar November $50 put (“CATWJ” recommended 09-27-09, triggered at $335, subsequent high at $535 on 10-02-09, subsequent low at $1 on 11-16-09) closed at a nominal value. Shares closed at $59.41, confronting resistance. Support is at: $57-$59, $52.50-$54.92, $47.50-$50, $43.25-$45.75, and $39-$40. Resistance is at $59.59-$60.84 and $62-$64. It’s the same story as CSX, for any remaining positions in this one.

The XLF December $15 put (“XJZXO” recommended 09-20-09, triggered at $110, subsequent high at $170 on 10-02-09, subsequent low at $55 on 11-18-09) closed at $56. Shares closed at $14.98, challenging resistance. Support is at: $13.75-$14.77, $11.31-$12.66, and $9.34-$10.50. Resistance is at: $15.00, $15.73, and up to $18.52.

The US Steel December $35 put (“FBJXG” recommended 11-08-09, triggered at $138, subsequent high at $155 on 11-10-09, subsequent low at $29 on 11-18-09) closed at $39. Shares closed at $42.73 reaching resistance. Support is now at: $38.79-$40, $33-$34.43, and $30. Resistance is now at $43.07 and $44.56-$47.59.

The QQQQ December $40 put (“QQQXN” recommended 08-16-09, triggered at $280, subsequent high at $290 on 09-02-09, subsequent low at $15 on 11-18-09) closed at $16. Shares closed at $44.35. Support is at: $41.85-$43.41, $39-$40.92, $36-$37, and $32-$34. Resistance is up to $45.

The Texas Instruments January $24 call (“TXNAJ” recommended 10-11-09, triggered at $150, subsequent high at $263 on 11-16-09, subsequent low at $84 on 10-21-09) closed at $234. Shares closed at $25.75. Resistance is now at $25.95-$26.08 and $28-$30. Watch support at: $24.50-$25.50, $23.38-$23.75, $22.25, and $21-$21.50.

The Disney January $30 call (“DISAF” recommended 10-18-09, triggered at $140, subsequent high at $173 on 11-17-09, subsequent low at $55 on 10-28-09) closed at $154. Shares closed at $30.67. Support is at: $29.50-$30.10, $27-$$28.73, and $24-$26. Resistance is now at $30.87, $35, and $45-$48.

The Life Technologies February $45 put (“IUVNI” recommended 11-01-09, triggered at $275, subsequent high at $320 on 11-02-09, subsequent low at $145 on 11-17-09) closed at $175. Shares closed at $50.28, down from resistance. Support is at: $49.50-$50, $45-$46.93, $42.50-$43.26, $38-$40, $33-$35, and $26.15-$31.17. Resistance is at $51.22-$52.

The IWM February $56 put (“IWMND” recommended 11-15-09, triggered at $252, subsequent high at $270 on 11-16-09, subsequent low at $207 on 11-16-09) closed at $215. Shares closed at $60.16. Support is now at $59.70, $55.33-$58.57, $53.06, and $49-$51. Resistance is now at $60.96 and $62.34-$62.61.

Steven Sarnoff, Editor

Stocks Push Up, As Correction Flags Fly — Thanks For Giving.

Steve Sarnoff — Sun, 15 Nov 2009 15:19:49 +0000

Stocks held their high ground, Friday, as investors shrugged off a weaker than expected reading of consumer sentiment.

OPTIONS HOTLINE MIDWEEK OUTLOOK

admin — Wed, 11 Nov 2009 15:16:25 +0000

SUBSCRIBER NOTE: All of us at Options Hotline wish you and yours a happy Veterans Day. Let’s remember those who serve and sacrifice, then and now, for us all. So far, this week, stocks and commodities continue to advance, as the US dollar continues to decline. The rally resumption is sending bears into torpor. But is [...]

Stocks Holding Firm And Looking Up — Steel Yourself For Further Fall

Steve Sarnoff — Sun, 08 Nov 2009 14:40:06 +0000

Stocks stood on solid ground, Friday, as investors took a bright side view of US employment data. The October jobs report showed continued degeneration beyond the government’s worst-case bank stress test scenario.

OPTIONS HOTLINE MIDWEEK OUTLOOK

Steve Sarnoff — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 14:20:19 +0000

I view each day’s trading as a struggle, between buyers and sellers, for control of market price movement. It’s been a busy week for news: Buffett investing in railroads, gold leaping to new highs on India central bank buying, FOMC statement on interest rates (“...likely to warrant exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period.”), and jobs data still to come.

Nightmare On Wall Street, As US Dollar Rally Stokes Investors’ Fear. Meanwhile, Superleverage Strikes Again With Our 12th Multiplier This Year!

Steve Sarnoff — Sun, 01 Nov 2009 15:40:15 +0000

This past week, many market participants were tricked, while few, you, were treated to great gains. Last week I wrote, “The battered US buck looks like it’s setting up for a nice bounce. That would cause a scramble to cover and pressure markets that benefited from the currency’s decline.”

OPTIONS HOTLINE MIDWEEK OUTLOOK

Steve Sarnoff — Wed, 28 Oct 2009 13:35:42 +0000

US dollar strength is smacking down stocks and commodities. As the weekend approaches, we are seeing developing weakness in those markets that benefited from a descending dollar.

As We Enter A Turn, All Eyes On The Dollar — This Week, A Contrarian Play

Steve Sarnoff — Sun, 25 Oct 2009 13:28:46 +0000

Stock and commodities bulls have been feasting on a weaker US dollar. The character of the behavior of market price movement tells me we are in a turning period for those markets.

OPTIONS HOTLINE MIDWEEK OUTLOOK

admin — Wed, 21 Oct 2009 13:29:38 +0000

So far this week, while bank and tech earnings made headlines, US dollar weakness helped lift stocks and commodities. Stocks moved up to test important immediate-term resistance.

On Watch For A Turn

Steve Sarnoff — Sun, 18 Oct 2009 13:34:24 +0000

This past week, equities continued their march higher; but Friday saw some US dollar strength knock stocks and commodities down. Financials were a leading sector to the downside. You are well positioned for a drive to lower levels of support.